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What's on the menu today:
A Classic Bitcoin Bottom Signal Just Flashed Again
Millions Are About to Own SpaceX Without Buying a Single Share
Coinbase, Circle underperform Big Tech as crypto stock slump deepens
A Classic Bitcoin Bottom Signal Just Flashed Again
You know what's interesting?
The people most likely to sell Bitcoin right now...
Already are.
New onchain data is showing something we've seen at previous bear market bottoms.
Investors are starting to throw in the towel.
Here's why that matters:
1/ Capitulation is finally showing up
One onchain metric tracks whether Bitcoin holders are selling at a profit... or locking in losses.
Right now?
It's at its lowest level of this entire bear market.
Translation:
A lot more people are panic selling instead of taking profits.
Bitcoin UTXO profit loss ratio at bear market low. Source: CryptoQuant
That might sound bearish.
But historically?
It's usually happened near the end of major corrections, not the beginning.
2/ Short-term holders are taking the hit
Most of the selling is coming from newer Bitcoin buyers.
These are the people who bought recently, watched prices fall, and decided they'd had enough.
Meanwhile, longer-term holders are only now starting to show signs of stress.
That's pretty typical during deeper corrections.
The weak hands leave first.
Then the market slowly starts finding a floor.
3/ History says these moments matter
The last time this same capitulation signal appeared was during the previous bear market, when Bitcoin was trading around $26,000.
It didn't mark the exact bottom overnight.
But it did mark the period where long-term accumulation started looking much more attractive.
That doesn't guarantee the same outcome this time.
But it's definitely a pattern worth paying attention to.
The takeaway:
Nobody enjoys buying when sentiment feels awful.
That's exactly why these periods often become the most interesting.
The only catch?
Bottoms aren't events.
They're usually a process.
And while the panic selling may already be here, the market could still spend weeks grinding sideways before confidence returns.
Millions Are About to Own SpaceX Without Buying a Single Share
For the first time, millions of people are about to own a piece of SpaceX...
Without ever clicking the "Buy" button.
The company is being added to major stock indexes, which means index funds now have to buy it automatically.
Here's why that matters:
1/ Index funds are about to go shopping
SpaceX joined the Russell 1000 on Friday.
And before the market opens on July 7, it'll also join the Nasdaq-100.
That means every fund tracking those indexes has to buy SpaceX shares.
No opinions.
No valuation debate.
Just automatic buying because that's how index funds work.
Some estimates suggest this could create more than $8 billion worth of buying pressure.
2/ Your retirement account might own SpaceX
If you own index funds through a 401(k), pension, or brokerage account...
There's a good chance you'll soon own a tiny piece of SpaceX.
Even if you've never looked up the stock.
That's the power of index investing.
Once a company gets added, millions of investors get exposure automatically.
3/ But don't confuse index inclusion with a buy signal
Here's the interesting part.
SpaceX still isn't included in the S&P 500.
Why?
Because it isn't consistently profitable under the S&P's requirements.
The company generated about $18.7 billion in revenue last year, with Starlink making up the majority of that.
But it still posted an overall loss as it continued spending heavily on Starship and other projects.
At today's valuation, SpaceX is worth roughly $2 trillion despite not being profitable.
The takeaway:
Getting added to an index doesn't mean a stock is cheap.
It just means index funds are required to own it.
The real question isn't whether funds are buying.
It's whether SpaceX can eventually grow into the massive expectations already baked into its valuation.
The Economy Corner
DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.