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What's on the menu today:

It’s been one of those weeks where owning Bitcoin feels like trying to hold onto a wet bar of soap in the shower.

(Slippery… and slightly stressful.)

BTC dips toward ~$61K → instantly rips back toward $64K.

$600M+ in longs get vaporized → bulls immediately start calling the bottom.

…what the hell is going on?

👇

Because on one hand, the move looks like capitulation.

On the other hand, it also looks like the exact kind of leverage flush that pretends to be a bottom… right before another leg down.

And that’s where things get interesting.

1/ The $600M wipeout wasn’t subtle

Bitcoin’s drop into the low $60Ks didn’t just shake the market.

It nuked it.

Over $737M in total liquidations, with roughly $617M+ in longs getting wiped out.

That’s not “mild deleveraging.”

That’s traders getting forcefully reminded that leverage cuts both ways.

And when you zoom out…

This is usually what early downside exhaustion looks like:

Overcrowded longs → sharp wick down → violent rebound → confusion.

2/ The rebound has people talking bottom again

BTC snaps back ~5%+ from the lows and suddenly:

“Was that it?”
“Is the bottom in?”
“Are we reversing already?”

Classic crypto behavior.

A few traders are already calling for a move back toward $69K–$70K if momentum holds.

The logic is simple:

👉 liquidation flush clears excess leverage
👉 sellers temporarily exhausted
👉 price mean-reverts upward

It happens a lot.

The problem?

It doesn’t always mean the trend is over.

3/ But the bigger structure still isn’t fully clean

Here’s the uncomfortable part.

Even after the bounce, the broader chart still has a bearish lean.

There’s still a bear flag structure hanging around on higher timeframes.

And that setup - if it plays out - keeps a deeper move toward the $50K–$52K zone in play.

That’s the part most people ignore in the excitement of a relief rally.

Because relief rallies are loud.

Trend confirmations are slow.

4/ The level that actually matters right now

One line is quietly doing a lot of work here:

👉 ~$61.8K = 200-week SMA

This is the “big macro line in the sand.”

Historically, this level has marked major cycle zones in past bear markets.

Right now?

BTC is basically sitting right on top of it, deciding what kind of market this is going to be.

5/ So what is this really?

Right now you’ve got two competing narratives:

Bull case:

Bear case:

And honestly?

Both can be “correct” in the short term.

That’s the annoying part of markets like this.

The takeaway:

This doesn’t feel like a clean bottom.

But it also doesn’t feel like free fall panic anymore either.

It feels like the middle part of a reset…

Where the market has already punished the over-leveraged…

But hasn’t yet decided if it’s done correcting.

And until BTC firmly holds or loses that ~$61K–$62K zone…

Everything else is just noise on top of the decision point.

AI stocks feel like they’ve already run the entire race.

(Nvidia at highs → hyperscalers throwing $180B–$200B+ into capex → every earnings call turning into an AI spending announcement.)

And yet… Amazon and Alphabet are still acting like it’s early.

…what the hell, dude??

Because on the surface, both stocks are already up big over the past year.

Amazon ~8% YTD, Alphabet ~13%, and much more over the cycle.

So it’s easy to think: did I miss it?

But then you look under the hood…

And the story gets way more aggressive.

👇

AWS is re-accelerating hard:

• +28% YoY growth
• $37.6B quarterly revenue
• ~$150B run-rate cloud business

That alone is already huge.

But here’s the kicker:

Amazon is now also building a massive AI stack:

• Graviton
• Trainium
• Nitro

A ~$20B+ run-rate chip business that’s scaling fast.

And the punchline?

Amazon is guiding ~$200B in capex for 2026.

Meaning: cash is coming in… and immediately going back into AI infrastructure.

Free cash flow? Basically flat.

Google Cloud is doing something similar — but even faster:

• +63% YoY growth
• $20B quarterly revenue
• ~$460B backlog

That backlog is the real signal — half a trillion in contracted demand.

And AI is now driving the core business:

• GenAI revenue up ~800% YoY
• Search still growing ~19%

So the “AI kills Google” narrative? Not really playing out.

Instead:

Search funds AI → AI fuels cloud → cloud fuels everything else.

Both companies are doing the same thing:

They’re sacrificing short-term free cash flow to dominate AI infrastructure long-term.

Which means:

• Earnings look fine
• Cash flow looks messy
• Capex looks extreme
• Strategy looks very intentional

This isn’t hype spending.

It’s infrastructure war spending.

Not really the right question.

The real question is:

What if we’re only in year 2 of a 10-year AI buildout?

Because if that’s true…

Then Amazon and Alphabet aren’t late-cycle trades.

They’re still early-cycle compounders.

And the market is slowly realizing:

This isn’t a hype peak.

It’s a capital arms race that’s just getting started.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.