The Investing Empire here - your go-to investing brain for crypto and stocks, decoding markets so you don’t have to.

What's on the menu today:

Bitcoin just reclaimed $77,000…

And on the surface, it looks like “risk is back on.”

Stocks are up.
Oil is down.
Geopolitical tension is easing.

So normally you’d expect Bitcoin to start ripping higher too.

But here’s the weird part…

It’s not.

Yes, BTC bounced with global markets after news that US–Iran talks are progressing and the Strait of Hormuz could reopen.

Oil dropped.
Inflation fears eased.
Equities in Japan and Europe rallied.

And Bitcoin followed the flow back above $77K.

But underneath that move?

The market still doesn’t look convinced.

Because derivatives are telling a different story.

Bitcoin 3-month futures are only pricing a ~2% premium over spot.

In a “healthy bullish” environment, that number is usually 5–10%.

Meaning:

Traders are not rushing into leveraged long positions here.

They’re participating… but cautiously.

Almost like they don’t fully trust the move.

And ETFs are adding another layer to this.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen billions in outflows recently.

That matters because this is where institutional demand shows up first.

And right now?

That demand is cooling off.

So what we actually have is a split screen market:

On one side:

On the other:

And then there’s Strategy (MSTR) in the background.

Instead of aggressively buying BTC like before, they’ve paused accumulation to focus on debt management and buybacks.

Which basically removes one of the biggest consistent buyers from the market (at least temporarily).

So where does that leave Bitcoin?

Stuck in this awkward middle zone.

Not bearish enough for panic.
Not bullish enough for conviction.

And that’s why the key level everyone is watching is still $82,000.

Because above that?

You likely trigger forced positioning, short covering, and a sentiment flip.

But until then…

The market is basically waiting for confirmation that this bounce is real, not just macro noise.

What were you doing when inflation data, Fed speeches, and a full tech earnings lineup all hit the same week?

Because markets are basically doing that thing again where they try to price everything… all at once.

Let’s break it down.

Core PCE drops Thursday.

Economists are sitting around ~3.3% YoY.

If that number comes in hot?

It’s basically the Fed saying: “Yeah… rate cuts? Not so fast.”

If it cools?

Suddenly the whole “maybe we can actually relax monetary policy” narrative comes back into play.

But here’s the thing…

The Fed isn’t even fully aligned with itself right now.

We’ve got officials like Christopher Waller basically hinting inflation is still the main problem, not growth. And that alone is enough to keep “rate cuts” off the table… maybe even flip the conversation toward hikes again.

Yeah. Hikes.

And markets are starting to price that possibility in.

Treasury yields are climbing, and anything sensitive to rates (aka growth stocks) is feeling it first.

But then you zoom out and see the contradiction:

Energy prices are easing because geopolitical tension is cooling.

And that should be bullish for everything risk-related.

Lower oil → lower inflation pressure → lower yields → higher tech multiples.

That’s the clean version of the story.

Now layer in earnings.

And it gets messy again.

We’ve got:

• Marvell
• Salesforce
• Costco
• Dell
• Snowflake
• Meta AGM

Dell is the one everyone’s watching.

Not because of laptops…

But because of AI infrastructure demand — basically: is Nvidia’s capex boom still spreading through the ecosystem or slowing down?

So right now you’ve got this weird setup:

Inflation risk is still alive
Rate cut hopes are fading
Yields are reacting
Energy is cooling
AI earnings are still strong (for now)

And markets are stuck in the middle trying to decide which narrative wins.

Because depending on what prints this week…

We either get:

or

And crypto? It’s just sitting there watching all of it like it’s waiting for permission to move again.

AI agents must be treated as untrusted systems: Researchers

OKX launches tool enabling users to create crypto markets

Scammers make $400K through fake Uniswap ads on Google

Why Johnson & Johnson Might Be the Smartest Dividend King to Buy in Today's Market

This AI Stock Has Been Called Overvalued for 3 Years. The Bears Keep Losing.

Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish on Domino's Pizza Stock?

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.